rotoballs

Our balls are better than yours.

Month: March, 2012

Brian’s Top 30 Closer Rankings and Projections for ’12

by rotobrian


Craig Kimbrel is head of the class. But do you trust him to repeat last year's success?

Relief pitchers are often thought of as the “Kickers” of baseball, and there is a reason for this theory. For one, there are 30 closers in the league (maybe even more if you count “by committee” bullpens). If you’re in a 10 team league, there will be a throng of closers to be had, even into the late rounds (not every closer will be owned by the end of the draft). Closers also only fulfill one stat category (Saves), which means if you draft a closer with one of your top 10 picks, you’re going to be losing out on a lot of other categories.

That being said, I like to own one of the more renown closers as to avoid the headache of “chasing saves.” I won’t ever go out and draft the best closer, or the second best for that matter, but I like to have a guy on my team who is going to get me at least 30 saves and won’t be in jeopardy of losing his job.

There’s a reason I leave these rankings until last: without fail, every year, one or two closers lose their starting gigs in spring training due to injury or ineptitude. Already Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson are out for the year. Drew Storen is injured (hence his low ranking; he would be number five on this list otherwise). The jury is still out on guys like Jason Motte and Javy Guerra. The reason most leagues hold their drafts at the end of March is to avoid wasting picks on dead end closers.

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Brian’s Top 25 Starting Pitcher Rankings and Projections for ’12

by rotobrian


Justin Verlander might not be Randy Johnson, but he pitched like it in 2011.

They say when you’re doing an auction draft, you should spend $180 on hitting, leaving only $80 for pitching. And the reasoning is simple: your hitters play everyday, while your starting pitchers are only going to pitch twice a week at most. In a head-to-head league, where a pitcher is only giving you between 6-15 innings a week, the impact isn’t very significant. Conversely, in a rotisserie league, where you’re compiling numbers all year round, and pitcher stats are valuable due to an innings limit, top-shelf pitchers are a hotter commodity. Regardless of the style of gameplay, there will always be pitching late in a draft. Not listed below are fantasy nuggets  like Vance Worley, Doug Fister, Johan Santana, Edinson Volquez, Hiroki Kuroda, and Clay Buchholz, who will be available near the end of your draft. Because of the ability to get talent late, you won’t need to get a handful of these top-25 pitchers. But it should be noted that ending a draft without at least 1-2 of these pitchers would be a detriment to your team. Having a few mainstays, a few sure things, is without question, the way you’ll win a championship.

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Spring Training

by rotobrian


We’re in Arizona for Spring Training. A recap coming later this weekend.

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Brian’s Top 12 Shortstop Rankings and Projections for ’12

by rotobrian


Three clear stars at the top, but could there be other stars?

Hall of Fame manager Leo Durocher is quoted as saying, “Nobody ever won a pennant without a star shortstop.” This is a clear attempt by Durocher to claim he was a star during his playing days, as he helped the New York Yankees win the World Series in 1928. It’s unknown if his tone was serious when he spoke those words, though. Durocher was a .247 career hitter with a grand total of 24 home runs in 20 years as a player. Babe Ruth nicknamed him “The All-American Out.”

Regardless of Durocher’s lackluster playing career, his quote is mostly true: “Nobody ever won a fantasy pennant without a star shortstop.” It’s a position that is difficult to fill after the first five or six are off the board. It’s why you’ll see even marginal shortstop talent become overvalued in a fantasy draft. It’s one of those “musical chairs” positions; you don’t want to get caught without a good one. But while all the players on this list aren’t “stars”, a lot of them do things that could be considered star-worthy, especially for a shortstop.

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Player Profile: Miguel Cabrera

by Backdoor Slider


Miguel could be on the field a lot this year due to Detroit's terrible infield defense. Finding a snack wherever he can will be crucial.

Benjamin Franklin once observed that the only guarantees in life are death and taxes. For reasons unknown, Franklin forgot to mention Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera is one of the most consistent sluggers in the game today and Franklin would surely take him #1 overall in his fantasy draft. [Editor's Note: What would Ben Franklin name his team? The Franklin Hot Stoves? Been-Jammin' Deborah Read? If you have any better ideas use the comments section].

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Player Profile: Hanley Ramirez

by smugglingplums


"Juego al fútbol ahora."

At the start of spring training last season, Hanley Ramirez and former double-play partner Dan Uggla made a wager to see who would have the worst numbers come the All-Star break. It was determined that the loser would buy the winner a “surf and turf” dinner at Black Angus. Neither did at all well in the first half, but with the muscular Uggla hitting well below his weight on July 10, victory was his. He could almost taste the filet mignon and grilled prawns (additionally he would have a works baked potato, steamed broccoli, a Caesar salad with extra croutons, and maybe a nice Pinot Noir; Uggla envisions his meals to the finest detail). Ramirez saw the writing on the wall, and through a club-appointed interpreter, offered him double-or-nothing to extend the bet to the end of the season. Uggla looked at his own 43/15/34/.185 line and accepted the new terms, figuring his season was irretrievably in the toilet. By the end of September, however, Uggla was the hottest hitter in the NL, while Hanley hadn’t played in two months. Uggla felt so bad for Hanley that he upped the ante and treated him to dim sum at P.F. Chang’s.

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Rotisserie versus Head-to-Head (2012 version)

by rotobrian


Every year, fantasy baseball grows in size, exposing more of the population to the sad, masochistic, stat-filled addiction that the strange few of us already know like the back of our hands. Usually, the first decision new managers have to face is which format they want to play under: rotisserie (roto) or head-to-head. My recommendation to new owners: join one of each because even though both are amazingly addicting, they’re remarkably different. I enjoy head-to-head formats better than rotisserie because I like the thrill of week-to-week drama. The rivalry aspect is also unique to head-to-head formats. But let’s not put the cart before the horse.

Before we delve into the differences, let’s make sure we don’t leave any stone unturned and quickly discuss the history of the “sport.”

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Player Profile: Jay Bruce

by The Van Buren Boys


Is this the year Jay vaults into the upper echelon?

Anyone living in Cincinnati can tell you the 1970s were a long time ago. Gone are the days of the Big Red Machine and Pete “Please Let Me in the Hall of Fame” Rose. Because of this people living and working in Cincinnati have had a long time to stew over the drought of success. Well, my friends, the times are about to change. The Cincinnati Reds are on the verge of taking over the NL Central. They’re loaded with talent, and thanks to the lapse in judgment by two of the premier clubs in the division, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder have defected to the American League, leaving the door wide open for the “Baby Reds” to capture the Central crown.

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Brian’s Top 25 Outfielder Rankings and Projections for ’12

by rotobrian


PEDs or not, Kemp and Braun were roto-studs in '11.

I was rereading my outfield rankings for the 2011 season and, while I had a few players pegged perfectly, overall I’d missed the mark on many occasions. I wasn’t high enough on Jacoby Ellsbury or Curtis Granderson (but who was?). I didn’t give Jose Bautista enough credit (I won’t make the same mistake this year). I was bullish on Carl Crawford moving to Boston. I fell in love with Jason Heyward. I was a mess.

Because there are so many outfielders, it’s tremendously difficult to calculate. In the following rankings, I’m sure some players near the bottom of my rankings will have career years, while some players near the top will have lamentable seasons. As a fantasy manager, you can’t project those occurrences. All you can do is look at track record (most recent stats being most important) and cross your fingers.

My inclination is to take stable outfielders. Those guys who don’t have terribly high ceilings, but their floor is well above sea level.

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Player Profile: Adam Jones

by rotobrian


ZZZzzzzzzzzz...

Before the 2008 season, Adam Jones took a player picture for Yahoo! Sports and, probably to no fault of his own, was caught with his eyes closed; half blinking, half looking like he sniffed the photographer’s lingering fart. Four years later, whether it’s due to this picture or his under the radar stats, people are still “sleeping” on Jones. He’s so under the radar, in fact, that when he was traveling with the Orioles to Canada in 2010 to play the Blue Jays, he was detained by immigration officials because they had mistaken him for NFL player Adam “Pacman” Jones, who has a criminal record and isn’t allowed into Canada (in a related story, Miguel Cabrera won’t be traveling to Toronto with the Detroit Tigers this year due to a DUI). Sleepy’s reputation, or lack thereof, has his ADP anywhere from 70-90, which is better than last year (140 ADP in ’11), but is still too low and something you should take advantage of.

Jones, much like his NL counterpart, Hunter Pence, has been the model of consistency. Over the past three years, he’s been good for 75, 20, 75, 10, .280. He actually improved in homeruns (25), RBI (83), and stolen bases (12) in 2011. He’s still only 26 years old and entering the prime of his career, which would suggest that his power numbers could still improve, nudging him north of 30 homers and 90 RBI.

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