Brian’s Top 12 Catcher Rankings and Projections for ’12
by rotobrian
Catcher is a silly position in 2012
If you could pick one position that you would love to not draft in 2012, what would it be? Shut up, it’s not DH you silly suckers, it’s catcher. Gone are the days where you could draft a sure stud behind the plate. Victor Martinez is hobbling around somewhere in the geriatric ward, while Jorge Posada took his tear-soaked glove and box of tissues home with him. The mainstays, like Brian McCann and Joe Mauer, are still here, but neither can be called difference makers anymore. McCann hasn’t shown the power everyone thought he would develop and Mauer, injured and banged up over the past few seasons, hasn’t regained that power stroke he had in ’09.
There are a few youngsters at the position, all of which have upside, but a significant and daunting downside. Catcher for the Tribe, Carlos Santana (26 years old), has shown that power that McCann hasn’t, but he’s a whiff machine and only amassed 132 hits in 552 at-bats. Buster Posey (24) possesses all the skills to be a big-time player, but coming off a significant injury could limit his playing time. Jesus Montero (22), the youngest of the bunch, gave us a tantalizing glimpse, albeit a brief one, at what could be the beginning of a wonderful career. But playing for the Mariners will limit his scoring opportunities. Finally, J.P. Arencibia (26) is a masher, but equally a golden sombrero wearer, but if you’re in 5×5 you won’t have to worry about his strikeouts.
The position also carries a bunch of guys who are basically the same player: Alex Avila, Matt Wieters, and Miguel Montero. There are a few boring guys: Wilson Ramos and Yadier Molina.
And lastly, we turn our focus to Mike Napoli, one of the biggest surprises of 2011. Traded from the Angels to the Blue Jays to the Rangers, Napoli, tired of being jerked around by the likes of Mike Scioscia, pounded his way through the Texas heat. But this also makes Napoli one of the hardest to project. He could very easily do what he did last year, which would most likely make him the best at the position again. But he’s a career .264 hitter with a career OPS of .873. Both those numbers are a far cry from what he did last year (.320/1.045). 2011 was a career year for Mike, and I’m not going to pay for those same stats.
There are three tiers, indicated by an underline.
1. Brian McCann- 62, 23, 85, 2, .277
2. Carlos Santana- 75, 25, 75, 4, .245
3. Mike Napoli- 70, 28, 70, 4, .270
4. Matt Wieters- 64, 20, 62, 1, .265
5. Joe Mauer- 70, 12, 75, 2, .295
6. Miguel Montero- 62, 16, 78, 1, .279
7. Alex Avila- 60, 17, 75, 2, .270
8. Buster Posey- 55, 15, 60, 2, .288
9. Jesus Montero- 50, 18, 50, 0, .284
10. Yadier Molina- 45, 10, 60, 2, .292
11. Wilson Ramos- 50, 15, 50, 1, .265
12. J.P. Arencibia- 45, 20, 70, 1, .225
Mauer is still a career 323 hitter and In 2009 he hit 365 with 28 dongs. Injuries have been a killer and he may never regain the power from 2009. If healthy and the majority of his games at 1b he could have a great season and be the cream of the crop once again.
But wouldn’t you consider that a big “if”? He’s got that potential. He’s got that sparkly upside. But he could be a future candidate for conversations that start off, “Remember that one guy…he was so good early in his career…what was his name?…”
Last year I drafted my C in the last round. This position never produces to their always generous pre-season rank; and the players don’t play everyday even when they are healthy. Using a pick in early rounds on catchers is a waste. Yes you might get one of the “top” catchers, but the “top” catchers aren’t in the top 100 of actual production.
Luke, I totally agree. Especially this year. The top catchers aren’t top-100 players, but you’ll have to draft them in the first 10 rounds. Waiting on a catcher is certainly a strategy I will employ and recommend.
Yeah I ended up with Napoli off the waiver wire right before he got hot last year, helped win me my first championship!!
But taking Napoli in the top-100 could spell disaster this year. Sure he’s good, but his value is too inflated. Chances are, his average dips significantly and his home run total sags (30+ homers in less than 400 ABs is pretty insane).
Ya I don’t think he will have the same magic as he did last year. I will probably wait until the end again to select a catcher, and then pick up one of the youngsters after they’re dropped by another team.
It’s a good plan.