On a clear morning, you can go out to the California coast and peer off the cliffs at the extending horizon that both seems to go on forever and have a clear, definitive ending line. You can imagine you’re back in Sagres, Portugal in the 1400s, standing on a cliff that they call “The End of the World.” You can imagine you’re an explorer, making predictions on whether the Earth was round and the ocean extended forever, or flat and ended in a tragically steep waterfall.

When making any kind of prediction, there is always the risk of being wrong, in fact, you’re likely going to wrong more often than right. A prediction, like the future, is uncertain, it’s the unknown. So when I set out to make my preseason fantasy baseball projections, I know going into it failure isn’t just a possibility, it’s a certainty.

The following are some projections that I had right…and wrong, dead wrong. For each position, I chose one player who I was correct on and one player who I was incorrect on. You can view all of my projections in our Rankings ’13 section. Included with each player are their “On Pace Stats” (as of May 30th).

Catcher

Correct Pick	Brian’s Preseason Projections	On Pace Stats
Wilin Rosario	62, 24, 65, 3, .260	64, 28, 83, 9, .268

Incorrect Pick	Brian’s Preseason Projections	On Pace Stats
Miguel Montero	65, 17, 90, 1, .290	49, 9, 46, 0, .190

First Base

Correct Pick	Brian’s Preseason Projections	On Pace Stats
Edwin Encarnacion	84, 24, 96, 10, .266	93, 42, 135, 6, .264

Incorrect Pick	Brian’s Preseason Projections	On Pace Stats
Paul Goldschmidt	81, 27, 88, 15, .280	104, 37, 125, 12, .337

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May 23, 2013

Closer Circle of Trust: May 2013

by rotobrian

	Trusted	Solid	Danger
	Heath Bell	Greg Holland	Kevin Gregg	Jose Valverde
Edward Mujica	Andrew Bailey	Addison Reed	Huston Street	Grant Balfour	Casey Janssen
Ernesto Frieri	Sergio Romo	Craig Kimbrel	Aroldis Chapman	Joe Nathan	Tom Wilhelmsen
Jim Henderson	Jim Johnson	Mariano Rivera	Jonathan Papelbon	Jason Grilli
Jose Veras	Fernando Rodney	Chris Perez	Rafael Betancourt	Rafael Soriano	Bobby Parnell
	Steve Cishek	Brandon League	Glen Perkins

Notes: Trusted pitchers are “set it and forget it” guys. Solid pitchers have a reasonable chance at recording 30 saves. Danger pitchers have a reasonable chance at having the door closed behind them, very soon.

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May 11, 2013

Rotoballs Podcast: April/May ’13

by rotobrian

rotoballs-podcast-1-0.m4a

Special thanks to Open Hand for providing the music for this episode.

[Click play on the left or the link on the right]

Brian Dorsey: Host

Ryan Short: Contributing Writer

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April 29, 2013

Fantasy Potpourri: Let’s All Pass Some Judgement

by rotobrian

[The following are mostly fantasy baseball notes with a sprinkling of pop-cultural snippets]

As if Giancarlo “Michael” Stanton wasn’t already having the season that ~~dreams~~ nightmares are made of (3 HR, .227 BA), Ed Guana of CBSSports.com has reported that Stanton left Monday’s tilt with a hamstring injury. Hey, if he’s not getting at-bats, he can’t strikeout, right?
Super prospect Nolan Arenado made his major league debut on Sunday, going 0-3 with a BB. While he’s a must add in NL-only leagues, mixed leaguers should let him swim with the likes of Mike Moustakas and Pedro Alvarez in the free agent pool until he shows us something. A lot of oh-fers are in his future.
ESPN’s Chris Broussard came out of the closet Monday as a Bible thumping douche bag. The sports reporter/analyst/talking-head, when referring to Jason Collins announcement that he’s gay, stated that homosexuality is “an open rebellion to God.” So is getting a tattoo, wearing polyester, and, oh yeah, getting divorced. Maybe Broussard should come down on NBA players who augment their bodies, wear jerseys, and have hoes in different area codes. Read the rest of this entry »

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April 24, 2013

The Reality Blog: Anatomy of a Baseball Fight

by sdchriswooden

He likes confrontation.

The always quotable Earl Weaver once said: “I think there should be bad blood between all [baseball] clubs.”

If true, Weaver would certainly love to be in the heart of the latest saga in the on-again, off-again rivalry between the Los Angeles Dodgers and their kid brothers down south, the San Diego Padres. The blood between the two clubs is currently so bad that the medieval practice of using leaches to suck out the toxins is a viable option. It’s a rivalry with a growing dislike that at times has compared to some of the greatest rivalries we’ve seen: Coca-Cola vs. Pepsi; Mac vs. the PC; Lakers vs. Celtics. David vs. Goliath.

Perhaps that last analogy is the one that suits this current edition of the Dodgers-Padres rivalry, for it certainly feels as though the free-spending Dodgers and their quarter billion dollar lineup qualify as Goliaths in their own right and the Padres, with their Dollar Tree pitching staff and their lineup full of “hopefuls” are the scrappy David. It’s telling that the scouting reports for both teams couldn’t be any more different. For the Dodgers most would use the ‘if everything goes wrong’ caveat in describing how their season could unfold, for it is almost a foregone conclusion that the season will go well. For the Padres, the only optimism lies in the ‘if everything goes right’ line, and there are a LOT of ifs for that to happen this season.

However, when these two teams show up on the same diamond to square off, wins and losses, payroll discrepancies, and star power are tossed aside. This is one of those rivalries where the intensity is always there, records aside (I still remember going to a Padres-Dodgers tilt a few years back when both teams were mediocre at best and the stadium had playoff-level intensity). It may not be quite what the Dodgers-Giants rivalry has been in recent years, but that’s more attributed to the fact that the Pads haven’t held up their end of the bargain by winning.

So, when Carlos Quentin went all Jerome-Bettis-at-the-goal-line on Donald Zachary Greinke (thank you baseball-reference.com for sourcing this awesome name discovery) last week, it seemed inevitable. A rule of thumb is if the fans of both teams are fighting in between beers in the parking lot before the game, the players on the field probably feel much the same. A broken collarbone and an eight-week DL stint for Greinke and an eight game suspension for Quentin has sparked controversy and dialogue. Is it fair for one team to lose a core player for two months while the other team only misses the guy who hurt that player for a couple weeks? Let’s examine.

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April 15, 2013

Closer Circle of Trust: April 2013

by rotobrian

	Trusted	Solid	Danger
	Joel Hanrahan	Greg Holland	Shawn Camp	Joaquin Benoit
Mitchell Boggs	J.J. Putz	Addison Reed	Huston Street	Grant Balfour	Casey Janssen
Ernesto Frieri	Sergio Romo	Craig Kimbrel	Aroldis Chapman	Joe Nathan	Tom Wilhelmsen
Brandon League	Jim Johnson	Mariano Rivera	Jonathan Papelbon	Rafael Soriano
Jose Veras	Fernando Rodney	Chris Perez	Rafael Betancourt	Jason Grilli	Bobby Parnell
	Steve Cishek	Jim Henderson	Glen Perkins

Notes: The closer carousel begins. Hopefully you bought into the closers who are in blue or green in your draft. The outside looking in isn’t where you want to hang out. But let’s take a look at each color. Trusted pitchers are “set it and forget it” guys. Solid pitchers have a reasonable chance at recording 30 saves. Danger pitchers have a reasonable chance at having the door closed behind them, very soon.

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April 11, 2013

The Reality Blog: How One Country Cornered the MLB Market

by sdchriswooden

The L.A. Guns were highly touted.

Sunset Strip was hallowed ground in the 80’s. It was a cornucopia of sex, drugs, and rock and roll, along with healthy doses of Aquanet, leopard print, and androgyny. Hair metal was everything. Motley Crue, Poison, L.A. Guns (who would later birth Guns N Roses), Great White, Warrant, and nearly any other assembly of dudes with long hair, trashy attire, and a half ounce of talent were snatched up and given massive amounts of money, cocaine, and women by every big record label in America.

It was the scene. You were not going to succeed as a record label in reaching the youth demographic in America if you didn’t have a successful stable of hair bands on your imprint, and Sunset Strip was the place to find them all. You needn’t look very hard either. They were pouring out of all the iconic venues: the Whiskey, Roxy, Troubadour, and Rainbow Room. It was a classic win-win for bands and labels alike; the right place and the right time applied equally to both sides. If you were the average, run-of-the-mill hair band, you wanted to be on Sunset to be “discovered.” Likewise, if you were the average label “suit” wanting to move up the proverbial ladder, you also wanted to be on Sunset, because that’s where the scene was.

The G-N-R cheese ballad ‘ParadiseCity’ summed the Sunset scene up perfectly. In baseball circles, the song title could also serve as an appropriate nickname for the Dominican Republic, Major League’s equivalent to the Sunset Strip of the 80’s.

It’s hard to find. Look closely.

The Dominican Republic championship at the recent World Baseball Classic was not the start of something new, rather it was the exclamation point on a phenomenon that has taken over the sport of baseball over the past decade. To borrow from another hair band classic: they rocked the world like a hurricane (a category five at that).

The D.R. has become the premier purveyor of Major League talent in the world. It’s surpassed all the traditional powerhouses [Japan, Cuba, and (yes) the U.S.], and it’s by no accident. This country literally creates ballplayers the way Mr. Miyagi creates karate masters; by raising and training young boys across the country as soon as they are able to throw and catch a ball.

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April 8, 2013

In Memoriam Chris Shelton

by rotobrian

Chris Shelton. Cousin of Alex Smith. Fan of home runs. R.I.P.

Here lies Chris Shelton’s fantasy career. Cousin of Alex Smith. Fan of home runs. R.I.P.

From the time the words “Play Ball!” are first belted out on Opening Day, until the first week comes to a close, there are always hundreds of storylines that nobody could have predicted. Wacky stories will often be accompanied with “You can’t make this s**t up.” It’s why some of the best movies, especially lately, are based on “true” stories. This world is filled with incredible, sometimes unbelievable, happenings.

One such story came about in the first month of the 2006 season. Detroit Tiger’s first baseman, Chris “Red Pop” Shelton, selected in the 2004 Rule 5 draft from the Pittsburg Pirates, devoured American League pitching for the first 13 games of the season. Shelton had nine home runs before playing in his 14^th game, the fastest American League player to do so. Needless to say, Shelton was a sought after commodity in fantasy leagues. Managers salivated over the power potential he possessed. The second coming of Mark McGuire was in our midst.

Sadly, after that 13^th game, Shelton’s monstrous power retreated as fast as it had materialized. He only had one more home run that month, and only six more before being demoted at the end of July. Since that demotion, “Red Pop” only played in 63 more games before leaving the game for good. His magical fairy tale was over, and he turned back into an orange pumpkin.

Even though fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised by fluke success stories like Shelton, it is still very tempting to think that this guy might be the real deal. For every Shelton, there is a Jose Bautista. Let’s take a look at some hitters who have jumped the gun and are treating this marathon like a sprint, and we’ll try and determine who is going to make it to the finish line and who is going to flame out.

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April 2, 2013

Pre-Season Award Show 2013!

by rotobrian

These awards have no correlation with fantasy.

Going back to look at last year, all of us were homers and picked Yonder Alonso to win the NL Rookie of the Year. How wrong we were. We were equally wrong when Matt Moore and Yoenis Cespedes were picked to win the AL ROY. We never said these predictions were any good. Predictions are like…well…let’s just say everyone has one and they stink. In fact, the only correct prediction made last year by our team was calling Miguel Cabrera the AL Most Valuable Player by Jared Cothren. Bravo, Jared. Bravo.

Here is this year’s list. Just don’t bet your life on it.

	RotoBrian	Jared	Butler	Shorty	SD Wooden	Thaller
NL ROY	Jedd Gyorko	Shelby Miller	Oscar Taveras	Julio Teheran	Jedd Gyorko	Shelby Miller
AL ROY	Wil Myers	Wil Myers	Wil Myers	Wil Myers	Wil Myers	Wil Myers
NL CY	Cole Hamels	Stephen Strasburg	Clayton Kershaw	Clayton Kersahw	Cole Hamels	Stephen Strasburg
AL CY	Justin Verlander	Felix Hernandez	Justin Verlander	Felix Hernandez	Felix Hernandez	Justin Verlander
NL MVP	Ryan Braun	Andrew McCutchen	Joey Votto	Joey Votto	Justin Upton	Matt Kemp
AL MVP	Miguel Cabrera	Miguel Cabrera	Mike Trout	Evan Longoria	Miguel Cabrera	Prince Fielder